V2EX off-path belief

Off-Path Belief

释义 Definition

off-path belief(偏离路径信念 / 非路径信念):在博弈论(尤其是序贯均衡完美贝叶斯均衡等动态博弈概念)中,指参与者对某个在均衡路径上不会发生的历史或节点(即“偏离均衡路径”的情形)所持有的概率判断/信念。
常用于分析:一旦出现“本不该发生”的行动,其他人如何解释与更新信念,从而决定接下来的最优反应。

发音 Pronunciation (IPA)

/f pθ blif/

词源 Etymology

该短语由 off-path(偏离路径的) + belief(信念) 组合而成。“path”在动态博弈里常指均衡路径(equilibrium path),即按均衡策略会实际走到的行动序列;“off-path”则指那些在均衡下到达概率为零的分支。
“off-path belief”作为术语主要在20世纪后期的现代博弈论文献中固定下来,用于描述对非均衡事件的解释规则与信念设定。

例句 Examples

An off-path belief tells players what to think if someone makes an unexpected move.
偏离路径信念用于说明:如果有人做出意外行动,其他玩家应当如何理解。

In a sequential equilibrium, off-path beliefs must be specified at unreached information sets and be consistent with players’ strategies whenever possible.
在序贯均衡中,必须在未到达的信息集上给出偏离路径信念,并在可行时与玩家策略保持一致性(通常与贝叶斯更新原则相协调)。

相关词 Related Words

文学/著作中的用例 Notable Works

  • Kreps, David M., and Robert Wilson. “Sequential Equilibria.” Econometrica (1982).
  • Osborne, Martin J., and Ariel Rubinstein. A Course in Game Theory (1994).
  • Fudenberg, Drew, and Jean Tirole. Game Theory (1991).
  • Myerson, Roger B. Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict (1991).
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